The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has long been known to influence global weather patterns. However, recent decades have seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of El Niño events reaching the "Super El Niño" category, bringing significant impacts worldwide.

A recent study has developed an innovative predictive model that integrates local and global climate signals to forecast Super El Niño events. This model introduces the Super El Niño Index (SEI), where a value of 80 or higher indicates the occurrence of a Super El Niño. Analysis of historical data shows that this model accurately reflects past Super El Niño events, such as those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Furthermore, the model predicted that the 2023-24 period would experience a Super El Niño with an SEI of around 80, which has since been confirmed by recent observations.

The increasing trend of SEI from 1982 to 2023 suggests that El Niño events are approaching Super El Niño intensity more frequently. This trend is believed to be linked to global warming, creating a more favorable environment for stronger El Niño events. The consequences include higher global temperatures, extreme heat waves, floods, droughts, and significant economic and environmental losses.

Addressing this challenge requires preparedness and strategic planning to mitigate the impacts of Super El Niño, which is likely to become more frequent in the future. Climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts are crucial to reducing the risks and damages caused by this phenomenon.